In early August of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT, China) released the "Recommended Models for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (7th Batch in 2019)", 237 models of lithium iron phosphate batteries, accounting for 67%; 64 models for NCM/NCA batteries, accounting for 18 %. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have rebounded.
"The introduction of the new subsidy policy will prompt the OEM to change the situation of pure pursuit of energy density in the past." Cheng Yusong, deputy general manager of Huading Guolian Marketing Center, said that with the sharp decline in subsidies, the cost pressure has increased dramatically, and the energy density has not been mentioned. Too high a requirement, lithium iron phosphate battery will usher in more development opportunities in the new energy vehicle market due to its cost and safety advantages.
"In view of the relatively poor profitability of new energy vehicle companies, there is not much room for automakers to reduce the subsidies for new energy vehicles." Cui Dongshu, secretary of the CPCA (China), believes that after the introduction of the new subsidy policy, The car companies will change their business direction, give up the pursuit of higher energy density batteries to gain higher subsidies; use relatively cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.
According to data from the China Chemical and Physicial Power Industry Association, the market price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells has dropped below 0.7 yuan/Wh in 2019, and the price of ternary battery cells is around 0.9 yuan/Wh. expand. According to estimates by Guojin Securities, taking 400km and 250km endurance models as an example, the comprehensive cost of lithium iron phosphate after deducting subsidies is 5600 yuan and 3500 yuan lower than the three yuan respectively. With the full withdrawal of subsidies in 2021, the price advantage of lithium iron phosphate will continue to be highlighted.
According to the research report of the Fortune Securities , this year's national new energy vehicle subsidy policy was released, and the industry's gross profit was under pressure. Local subsidies were cancelled in the passenger vehicle sector, and the overall decline was about 60%-67%. Considering the safety of lithium iron phosphate and the economics brought by long cycle, the demand for lithium iron phosphate under the subsidy is marginal recovery.
In recent years, there have been many fire accidents in electric vehicles. Yang Yusheng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, believes that (with Tesla as an example) the thermal runaway temperature of ternary lithium-ion batteries is less than 200℃, especially when ternary materials reach a certain temperature. The release of extremely active nascent oxygen, even in the absence of external oxygen supply, the interior of the battery is "completely" with three elements of combustion. This is also the reason why the fire spreads rapidly and is difficult to extinguish after the ternary lithium-ion battery is on fire.
In contrast, Yang Yusheng said that the oxygen in the lithium iron phosphate molecule is firmly bound in the phosphate, which is difficult to be a combustion improver. The lithium iron phosphate battery has a much higher thermal runaway temperature and is also safer. many. Now, the specific energy of the lithium iron phosphate battery has been increased to 180Wh/Kg, and the battery pack energy has exceeded 150Wh/Kg. The performance of the power battery can fully meet the demand of the extended-range electric vehicle.
In recent years, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries has indeed increased a lot. In late August, the BYD performance exchange revealed that the new generation of iron-lithium batteries, which will be launched in May-June 2020, will increase the energy density by 50%, with higher safety and longer life. Up to 8 years or 1.2 million kilometers, the cost can be reduced by 30%.
In fact, BYD has been working hard to break through the "bottleneck" of its energy density. In 2018, BYD has stated that the energy density of lithium iron phosphate monomer is 165Wh/kg, and the system energy density is 140Wh/kg. In the next two years, the planned unit energy density will increase to more than 180Wh/kg, and the system energy density will increase to 160Wh/kg.
The biggest advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery is safety and cost, but the biggest disadvantage is that the energy density is relatively low and the cruising range is relatively short. Now BYD announced that a new generation of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be available soon, then BYD may re-use lithium iron phosphate batteries in its own pure electric vehicles in the future.
Guoxuan High-Tech, which has long been focusing on lithium iron phosphate batteries, said that the company's mass-produced lithium iron phosphate battery products have an energy density of 180Wh/kg, which can match the model with a cruising range of more than 400km, reaching the international leading level. The newly developed 190Wh/kg cylindrical lithium iron phosphate battery will also be mass-produced in the second half of 2019.
It is worth mentioning that in March of this year, Shenzhen Dynanonic Co., Ltd. IPO met and became the first lithium iron phosphate material enterprise to have an IPO meeting. Wang Yunshi, director of Dynanonic, said that the future industry policy will present two major trends:
- First, gradually enter the era of non-subsidized marketization;
- Second, turn to focus on "Safety, Energy Conservation, and Environmental Protection." At the level of industry development, under the two major trends, lithium iron phosphate batteries will be more widely used in new energy vehicles and energy storage markets such as passenger cars, special vehicles and passenger vehicles due to their high safety and low cost.
Jiang Li, secretary of the board of directors and deputy general manager of Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), said: "The prospect of the energy storage market is very broad, and the market size in the future may even exceed that of power batteries." According to statistics, the capacity of China's energy storage market will exceed 600 billion yuan in the next 10 years. By 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of China's electrochemical energy storage market will exceed 50GWh, and the scale of energy storage investment will reach 230 billion yuan. In the field of energy storage, lithium iron phosphate has an advantage over ternary, and energy storage will be the most important potential market for lithium iron phosphate.
Article translated and forwarded from China Battery Enterprise Alliance